在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件发生后,增强了多年可预测性
Yiling Liu1,2, Markus G Donat3,4, Matthew H England5
1Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. yiling.liu@anu.edu.au.
Nature communications
|October 11, 2023
概括
当在厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件期间初始化时,气候预测对于较长的时间更有技巧. 从中性ENSO条件开始的预测显示温度和降水预报的技能较低.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 区域气候变量,如温度和降水,显示年间到十年的可预测性.
- 以前的十年预测研究经常使用不同的初始条件,可能掩盖了依赖状态的可预测性.
研究的目的:
- 评估多年气候可预测性的条件是初始化时的厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 阶段.
- 确定ENSO阶段是否影响十年气候预测的技巧.
主要方法:
- 使用社区气候系统模型版本4进行理想化的预测实验.
- 使用社区地球系统模型进行现实世界的预测.
- 来自合模型对比项目第六阶段十年气候预测项目的后预测的分析.
主要成果:
- 在厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜期间初始化的预测显示,在近地表空气温度和降水方面,提前几年的技能更高.
- 这种增强的可预测性优于从中性ENSO条件初始化的预测.
- 这些发现在不同气候模型和预测数据集中一致.
结论:
- ENSO阶段对多年气候预测的技巧有很大的影响.
- 由于相位转换和相关的远程连接,ENSO事件后的可预测性得到增强.
- 识别特定的初始状态,如ENSO事件,揭示了更熟练的十年气候预测的机会.
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