未来降水量增加受到云效应气候模式的限制.
Wenyu Zhou1, L Ruby Leung2, Nicholas Siler3
1Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA. wenyu.zhou@pnnl.gov.
Nature communications
|October 11, 2023
概括
全球降水量随着变暖而增加,但模型不同意. 这项研究将降水灵敏度与云反联系起来,将模型不确定性降低25%,以便更好地评估气候影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 大气物理大气物理学
- 水文学 水文学
背景情况:
- 全球平均降水量增加是由于人为变暖而导致水文循环加剧的关键指标.
- 目前的气候模型显示预测降水变化的不确定性超过三倍,阻碍了准确的气候影响评估.
- 降水预测的不确定性来自于水文敏感度和气候敏感度的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 调查水文和气候敏感性之间的关系.
- 用观察到的云反模式来限制全球平均降水增加的预测.
- 减少气候变化影响评估中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 统一的表面能量平衡方法来分析水文和气候敏感性.
- 灵敏度与表面短波云反之间的相关性分析.
- 将云反与云短波效应的气候模式联系起来.
主要成果:
- 水文和气候敏感性与表面短波云反有显著的相关性.
- 观察到的云效应模式限制了这两种灵敏度,从而限制了全球平均降水增加预测.
- 在高和中等排放场景下,预计降水增加的不确定性减少了约25%.
结论:
- 观测到的云层模式对气候模型预测的降雨加剧提供了有价值的约束.
- 降水预测的不确定性降低提高了气候影响评估的可靠性.
- 这项研究为未来水文变化的更可靠预测提供了一条途径.
相关概念视频
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.8K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.8K
Precipitation Processes
464
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
464
Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
What is Weather?
18.3K
Overview
18.3K
What is Climate?
18.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.6K
Types of Coprecipitation
638
Coprecipitation is the contamination of a precipitate by otherwise soluble species and occurs via different processes. In colloidal precipitates, coprecipitation occurs via surface adsorption. For instance, barium sulfate has a primary layer of adsorbed barium ions and a secondary layer of nitrate counterions. This results in contamination of the precipitate by barium nitrate.
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
Sometimes, ions in a crystal lattice can undergo isomorphous replacement by inclusions of similar charge and size. For...
638


