在当前和高可再生能源的美国西部电力系统中,资源充足性失败的气象驱动因素
Srihari Sundar1, Michael T Craig2,3, Ashley E Payne4
1Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. sriharis@umich.edu.
Nature communications
|October 11, 2023
概括
三种高压天气模式导致大多数电力系统资源充足性故障,特别是随着更多的风能和太阳能. 这些模式增加了需求,减少了可再生能源的供应.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
背景情况:
- 电力系统资源充足性 (RA) 确保可靠的能源供需平衡,对社会功能至关重要.
- 气象条件对RA的影响,特别是随着可再生能源集成的增加,仍然不充分理解.
- 了解这些影响对于电网稳定性和未来的能源规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了识别和描述大规模的气象模式,驱动电力系统资源充足性故障在美国西部.
- 分析这些模式如何影响RA在增加的风能和太阳能透.
- 评估电力系统对特定天气现象的脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 整合电力系统分析与 синоптической气象技术.
- 与RA失效相关的高压循环模式的表征.
- 在多个天气年份的分析和高达60%的可再生能源透率.
主要成果:
- 三种主要的高压模式被确定为几乎所有RA故障的主要驱动因素.
- 一个特定的高压异常是主要原因,负责很大一部分的风险小时和累积风险.
- 这些模式与正温度,混合太阳辐射和负风速异常相关,增加需求并减少供应.
结论:
- 确定的气象驱动因素与2020年加利福尼亚滚动停电期间的条件一致.
- 随着可再生能源透率的增加,电力系统仍然容易受到这些具有影响力的天气模式的影响.
- 描述这些天气模式对于提高电网弹性和确保未来能源可靠性至关重要.
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