由于空气更清洁,高山亚洲的降雨模式发生了变化
Jie Jiang1, Tianjun Zhou2,3, Yun Qian4
1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature
|October 11, 2023
概括
高山亚洲
科学领域:
- 气候学
- 大气科学
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 高山亚洲 (HMA) 面临水资源失衡,原因是南干北湿的降雨模式.
- 气候预测表明未来的潮湿趋势, 但过渡机制和时间尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查HMA中观察到的双极降水模式的驱动因素.
- 在不同的排放场景下确定HMA降水变化的未来轨迹.
主要方法:
- 1951年至2020年的降水数据分析.
- 在中等和高排放场景下进行气候建模.
- 研究亚洲西部喷流和跨十年太平洋振荡的影响.
主要成果:
- 双极降雨模式是由西部和季风降雨驱动的,受人为气溶导致的亚洲西部气流减弱的影响.
- 十年间的太平洋振荡导致了外相降水变化.
- 预计在2040年代的中/高排放下,将转向单极湿趋势.
结论:
- 减少人为气溶排放是强化喷气流和未来湿趋势的关键.
- 政策制定者必须考虑减少气溶的排放,以便在未来管理HMA的水资源.
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