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在气候变化下建模埃及棉花叶虫,Spodoptera littoralis的潜在全球分布

Sara M ElShahed¹, Zahia K Mostafa², Marwa H Radwan²

¹Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, 11566, Cairo, Egypt. saraadly@sci.asu.edu.eg.

Scientific reports

|October 12, 2023

概括

侵袭性埃及棉花叶虫 (Spodoptera littoralis) 正因气候变化而扩大其全球范围. 这项研究预测了其未来的分布,强调了可能向北欧,美洲和中国的转移.

科学领域:

农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
侵入性物种生态学生态学
气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

埃及棉花叶虫 (Spodoptera littoralis) 由于其侵入性和广泛的作物损害,对全球粮食安全构成重大威胁.
了解这种害虫的入侵潜力至关重要,特别是在全球气候变化及其对农业的影响背景下.

研究的目的:

预测埃及棉花叶虫 (Spodoptera littoralis) 目前和未来的全球空间分布.
评估气候变化对不同代表性度途径 (RCP) 的害虫分布的潜在影响.
告知决策者关于这种破坏性害虫的入侵性及其对农业贸易的潜在影响.

主要方法:

利用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来预测物种分布.
使用了当前的气候数据和未来的气候预测 (RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5对2050和2070).
使用AUC和TSS值验证模型准确性.

主要成果:

该模型实现了高精度 (AUC和TSS值).
对于Spodoptera littoralis来说,最佳的温度范围在10°C和28°C之间.
目前的分布包括非洲,中东和南欧.
预测未来的分布显示向北转移到北欧和美洲,在中国也发现了合适的气候.

结论:

预计气候变化将促进Spodoptera littoralis扩散到新的地区,包括欧洲,北美和中国.
预测的分布变化对全球作物生产和国际贸易流动有重大影响.
需要采取积极的管理和贸易策略,以减轻这种入侵性害虫的影响.

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