沿海城市降雨和暴潮之间的依赖的趋势分析
Youming Li1, Yan Long2, Xuan Jiang3
1School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China
概括
沿海城市面临来自降雨和暴风雨潮的复合洪水. 了解它们的依赖对于城市洪水控制至关重要,尤其是在像10月这样的高峰季节.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 降雨和暴风雨带来的复合洪水对沿海城市地区构成重大风险.
- 有效的城市洪水管理需要了解降雨和风暴潮之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 量化降雨和暴风雨潮之间的依赖.
- 为它们的共同发生开发一个概率分布模型.
- 检测它们的依赖趋势和改善洪水管理的共同概率.
主要方法:
- 使用肯德尔的 τ,斯皮尔曼的 ρ 和尾部依赖系数来量化依赖.
- 开发一个基于双变偶的概率分布模型.
- 应用曼-肯德尔 (MK) 和季节-肯德尔 (SQMK) 方法来检测趋势.
主要成果:
- 强降雨和风暴潮之间的依赖性更高,可能是由于热带气旋.
- 最大的依赖发生在10月,最小的在7月,突出了海口等城市的季节性风险.
- 尾部上部依赖明显大于尾部下部依赖,显示出积极的趋势.
结论:
- 这项研究为降雨和风暴潮的结合行为提供了关键的见解.
- 这些发现支持沿海地区针对性的洪水风险评估和管理策略.
- 了解这些依赖关系对于减轻复合洪水影响至关重要.
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