低碳城市能否提高城市房价? 来自中国低碳城市试点项目的证据
Linfei Li1, Hongcheng Wang2, Chenhao Guo1
1School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 13, 2023
概括
中国的低碳试点政策出乎意料地使城市住房价格下降了6.2%. 这一政策影响了住房供应成本和劳工工资,与由于空气质量改善而导致价格上的预期相矛盾.
科学领域:
- 城市经济学的城市经济学.
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 房地产市场分析 房地产市场分析
背景情况:
- 全球低碳转型带来了系统性变化,影响了城市环境,经济和社会结构.
- 中国的低碳试点政策 (LCCP) 旨在解决城市发展中的环境问题.
- 现有的理论预测,LCCP政策可能会通过改善空气质量来提高房价.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国LCCP对城市住房价格的因果影响.
- 调查LCCP影响住房市场的机制.
- 在低碳转型期间,为稳定的住房价格提供政策见解.
主要方法:
- 使用分级差异框架 (DID),将LCCP视为一个准自然实验.
- 分析了该政策对住房市场的需求和供应双方的影响.
- 检查了不同地理位置和城市层面的政策影响的变化.
主要成果:
- 与非试点城市相比,LCCP导致试点城市的住房价格平均下降6.2%.
- 虽然空气污染减少了,但房价没有受到积极的影响;相反,劳动工资下降了.
- 房地产企业减少排放成本的增加对住房供应和价格产生了负面影响.
结论:
- 与最初的假设相反,LCCP对中国的城市住房价格产生了显著的负面影响.
- 政策影响通过对劳动工资 (需求侧) 和生产成本 (供应侧) 的影响来调节.
- 城市间的异质效应凸显了为稳定的住房市场和可持续的城市发展制定定制政策的必要性.
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