2015-2021年北中国平原表面臭氧变化的气象学和人为驱动因素
Min Wang1, Xiaokang Chen1, Zhe Jiang1
1School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026, China.
The Science of the total environment
|October 13, 2023
概括
中国的表面臭氧污染已经发生转变,气象因素现在正在降低水平. 减少的二氧化 (NO2) 也有助于减少臭氧,为减少污染的策略提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 在过去的十年中,中国的表面臭氧 (O3) 度显著增加.
- 了解O3污染的驱动因素对于制定有效的环境政策至关重要.
- 北中国平原 (NCP) 是一个面临大量O3污染挑战的关键地区.
研究的目的:
- 调查2015年至2021年NCP中观察到的夏季表面O3变化的驱动因素.
- 区分气象和人类对O3演变的贡献.
- 为减轻中国的O3污染提供见解.
主要方法:
- 集成基于数据 (深度学习) 和基于过程 (GEOS-Chem) 的模型.
- 分析气象变量,如地表空气温度和相对湿度.
- 对人为贡献的评估,包括二氧化 (NO2) 度.
主要成果:
- 气象对O3变化的贡献在2015-2019年和2019-2021年之间从正向负转变.
- 深度学习 (DL) 表示反向气象贡献为0.14 ppb/y (2015-2019) 和-1.74 ppb/y (2019-2021).
- 来自GEOS-Chem的模拟支持了这些发现,显示各个时期的气象贡献为0.26 ppb/y和-0.74 ppb/y.
- 人类对O3增加的贡献似乎正在减弱,DL显示为1.53 ppb/y (2015-2019) 和0.54 ppb/y (2019-2021).
- GEOS-Chem模拟表明,由于NO2度下降,O3的下降速度加快.
- 综合影响导致表面O3度在2019-2021年显著下降 -1.20ppb/y.
结论:
- 气象条件已经转移,在NCP的表面臭氧水平中发挥着下降作用.
- 人为排放的减少,特别是二氧化,正在越来越多地导致臭氧度下降.
- 这些发现对于为中国打击臭氧污染的有针对性的战略提供信息至关重要.
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