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巴西阿拉伯咖啡在当前和未来气候条件下的气候风险和脆弱性,考虑新的CMIP6模型

Cássia Gabriele Dias¹, Fabrina Bolzan Martins¹, Minella Alves Martins²

¹Federal University of Itajubá - Natural Resource Institute, C.P. 50, 37500-903 Itajubá, MG, Brazil.

The Science of the total environment

|October 13, 2023

概括

气候变化对巴西构成重大风险.

科学领域:

农学与气候科学农学与气候科学
农业经济学农业经济学
环境科学环境科学

背景情况:

全球咖啡生产,特别是阿拉伯咖啡,面临着气候变化带来的严重威胁.
巴西是阿拉伯咖啡的主要生产国,拥有重要的咖啡种植地区,被确定为气候变化热点.
了解区域对气候影响的脆弱性对于市场稳定至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析巴西阿拉伯咖啡的气候变化风险,脆弱性和对害虫和疾病的易感性.
在各种未来气候场景 (SSP) 中预测这些风险.
概述适应性农业战略,以减轻未来的脆弱性.

主要方法:

开发十个阿拉伯咖啡风险指标,包括温度压力,水压力和害虫/疾病易感性.
在三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下利用了16个通用循环模型 (GCM) 的每日气候数据.
对当前 (1995-2014) 和未来气候预测 (近期,中期,远期) 的风险评估,分为五个风险类别.

主要成果:

增加的最高温度 (TImax) 和由于水应力 (Iyg) 的产量损失指标显示高至非常高的风险.
据估计,在整个21世纪,研究的阿拉比卡咖啡面积的35%至75%可能会在经济上变得不可行.
由于气温上升和湿度下降,咖啡生和叶子矿工预计仍将成为重大问题.

结论:

巴西的阿拉比卡咖啡种植面临着气候变化带来的重大经济威胁.
有效的适应措施对于咖啡作物的未来生存能力至关重要.
建议的策略包括转移作物,开发弹性品种和实施先进的农业技术.

关键词:

适应措施适应措施阿拉伯咖啡 L. 阿拉伯咖啡咖啡的疾病咖啡的疾病咖啡的害虫是咖啡的害虫.NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 是一个风险指标风险指标

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