气候空间和悬崖:一种新的牛热力学和质量平衡模型
Warren P Porter1, Alexa E Bertz1, Paul D Mathewson1
1Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|October 14, 2023
概括
气候变化给奶牛带来了直接的生殖风险,不仅仅是生存. 一种名为Dairy Niche Mapper的新模型量化了这些对牛奶生产,料和水需求的影响.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 动物科学动物科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对动物的影响通常集中在生存和福祉上.
- 这项研究扩大了重点,包括气候对生殖能力的影响,确定生殖失败的"气候悬崖".
- 这些挑战可能比以前理解的更直接,更深刻.
研究的目的:
- 引入和验证乳制品利基导图 (DNM) 模型.
- 量化评估气候变化与乳牛特性之间的复杂相互作用.
- 预测气候变化对牛奶生产,料和水需求的当前和未来影响.
主要方法:
- 从尼契映射器 (NM) 模型开发出乳制品利基映射器 (DNM) 模型.
- 对DNM模型进行了独立的验证测试.
- 模拟的代谢室条件和温度湿度指数 (THI) 场景.
- 计算了北半球不同度和养系统的北度气候变化影响.
主要成果:
- DNM模拟准确地反映了当地对牛奶生产,新陈代谢和资源需求的影响.
- 模拟显示了气候变化对乳制品生产潜力,料和水需求的影响.
- 热带和亚热带地区面临着最大的气候变化影响;30°至60°度之间的地区有可靠的降雨量受到影响最小.
结论:
- 气候变暖对奶牛的繁殖和生产力带来了重大和直接的挑战.
- DNM模型为了解和减轻气候变化对乳制品运营的影响提供了一个工具.
- 研究结果支持用于繁殖的计算动物设计,基因工程和管理策略,以适应农业.
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