气候变化如何影响番茄和的生产? 来自尼日利亚的证据
Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke1, Fred Fosu Agyarko2, Chinenye Judith Onyeneke1
1Department of Agriculture, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ikwo 482131, Nigeria.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 14, 2023
概括
气候变化,特别是气温上升,对尼日利亚的和番茄产量产生了负面影响. 开发气候智能作物品种对于农民适应这些不断变化的农业条件至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球粮食安全构成重大威胁.
- 尼日利亚的农业,特别是像和番茄这样的关键作物的生产,很容易受到气候变化的影响.
- 了解气候变量,农业投入和作物产量之间的相互作用对于可持续的农业实践至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对尼日利亚和番茄产量的短期和长期影响.
- 在气候变化背景下分析肥料消费和农业信贷对作物生产的影响.
- 为减轻气候变化对水果作物产量的负面影响提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 利用了40年的气候变量,和番茄产量,肥料消耗和农业信贷的时间序列数据.
- 使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型来评估短期和长期关系.
- 应用单位根测试和共同整合分析 (Bound的测试) 来验证模型和变量关系.
主要成果:
- 平均气温上升在短期和长期内对和番茄产量产生了负面影响.
- 农业信贷在短期和长期内对番茄产量产生了积极影响.
- 肥料消费对的产量产生了长期的负面影响.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是气温上升,严重阻碍了尼日利亚和西红等草本果作物的生产.
- 该研究强调了适应性战略的必要性,包括开发和部署适应气候变化的作物品种.
- 实施气候智能农业实践和政策对于支持农民和确保水果作物生产的可持续性至关重要.
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