中国的碳强度限制政策能否提高碳排放性能? 来自区域碳排放的证据
Xin Miao1, Enhui Feng1, Yim Ling Siu2
1School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, PR China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 14, 2023
概括
中国的碳密度限制政策 (CICPs) 表明,过度的政府干预损害了碳排放性能 (CEP). 当地政府努力实现目标可能会产生反作用,尤其是在财政压力下.
科学领域:
- 环境政策与经济环境政策与经济
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 自2010年以来,中国实施了三项为期五年的碳强度限制政策 (CICPs),以应对气候变化.
- 这些CICP对碳排放性能 (CEP) 的实际影响仍然不太清楚.
- 现有的政策可能会导致政府过度干预,造成意想不到的后果.
研究的目的:
- 调查CICP对中国地区CEP的影响.
- 探索政府干预的作用和与CICPs相关的绿色悖论.
- 为优化未来CICP实施提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的效率模型,将整体技术前沿概念与基于数据包围分析 (DEA) 的非辐射,非角度定向距离函数结合起来.
- 从2002年到2019年,在中国30个省份测量了CEP.
- 采用准差异差异 (quasi-DID) 和调节调解模型来分析政策影响和确定因果关系.
主要成果:
- 发现高水平的政府干预显著减少了CEP.
- 干预对CEP的负面影响因区域财政压力的增加而加剧.
- 在基于时间的CICP对区域CEP的影响中,观察到一种反作用的,反转的N形趋势,表明收益率下降和潜在的负面影响.
结论:
- 过度的政府干预,由满足排放目标的愿望驱动,可能会破坏碳排放绩效.
- 政策的有效性取决于区域经济发展水平和财政状况.
- 对政府干预采取更加平衡的方法对于实现中国的碳峰值和碳中立目标至关重要.
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