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通过环境和风险映射推断牛结核病在牛和之间传播

You Chang¹, Nienke Hartemink^1,2, Andrew W Byrne³

¹Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, Netherlands.

Frontiers in veterinary science

|October 16, 2023

概括

环境传播在牛结核病 (bTB) 在牛和大之间传播方面发挥着重要作用. 了解这一点,以及物种密度,是识别BTB控制高风险地区的关键.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
疾病生态学疾病生态学
野生动物健康野生动物健康

背景情况:

由*Mycobacterium bovis*引起的牛结核病 (bTB) 是一个持续的全球性挑战.
野生动物库,如欧洲大,使牛群中的bTB控制复杂化.
牛和大之间环境传播的定量作用仍然不太清楚.

研究的目的:

在一个空间显式的背景下,研究牛和之间的bTB传播动态.
评估环境传播在bTB传播中的定量重要性.
确定具有bTB传播高风险的地理区域.

主要方法:

开发一种环境传播模型,包括物种内部和物种间的传播.
模型参数的估计,包括*M. bovis*衰变率,使用4年子疫苗接种试验的数据.
空间显式模拟生成群体间的繁殖比率 (R) 地图.

主要成果:

环境在bTB传播中起着至关重要的作用,估计M. bovis的环境半衰期约为177天.
的相对密度显著影响着群体内的传播率.
创建了一个新的群体间R地图,突出显示具有高bTB传播风险的地区.

结论:

环境途径对于牛和大之间的bTB传播至关重要.
空间显式建模和复制比率映射是识别BTB热点的宝贵工具.
这些发现为有针对性的bTB控制策略提供了信息,考虑到野生动物和牛之间的相互作用以及环境因素.

关键词:

R地图 R地图 R地图牛结核是牛结核的一种疾病.国内野生动物界面接口环境传输环境传输下一代矩阵方法下一代矩阵方法.

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