使用机器学习和基于物理的建模系统预测附带负荷的新方法
Christina Feng Chang1, Marina Astitha1, Yongping Yuan2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut.
概括
预测淡水湖中的 (P) 负载对于管理缩至关重要. 这项研究开发了机器学习模型,使用环境和农业数据准确预测总P (TP) 和溶解反应性P (DRP) 负载.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水质建模水质建模
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 附带 (P) 负载是淡水湖缩的主要原因.
- 准确预测P负载对于了解下游生态系统的水质退化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估使用机器学习 (ML) 来预测月度总 (TP) 和溶解反应 (DRP) 负载的综合多媒体建模系统.
- 评估在气象,水文和农业管理数据上训练的ML模型的性能,以预测P负载.
主要方法:
- 开发了两个ML模型:一个用于TP负载 (10个变量) 和一个用于DRP负载 (9个变量).
- 利用了来自天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型,可变透能力 (VIC) 模型和环境政策综合气候 (EPIC) 模型的数据.
- 使用Maumee,Sandusky,Portage和Raisin流域排放到埃里湖的数据验证的模型.
主要成果:
- 流量被确定为TP和DRP负载的最重要的预测变量.
- 机器学习模型在预测 TP 和 DRP 负载时空和空间上都表现出很高的准确性.
- TP负载预测与现有研究范围保持一致或改进;DRP负载预测超过了其他研究的绩效指标.
结论:
- 集成的多媒体建模系统有效地预测淡水系统中的P负载.
- 基于机器学习的方法显示了随着数据可用性的增加而有改进的潜力.
- 建议使用这种方法来研究其他淡水系统和水质变量.
相关概念视频
Typical Model Studies
366
Fluid mechanics model studies often utilize scaled-down systems to predict fluid behavior in full-scale environments, such as river flows, dam spillways, and structures interacting with open surfaces. Maintaining Froude number similarity in river models is crucial, as it replicates surface flow features like wave patterns and velocities.
366
Modeling and Similitude
273
Scaled modeling is a fundamental technique in engineering, enabling the study of large and complex systems by creating smaller, manageable replicas that recreate critical characteristics of the original. In hydrology and civil infrastructure, for example, scaled models of dams help analyze water flow, turbulence, and pressure. This method allows for accurate predictions of real-world behavior within a controlled environment, significantly reducing the cost and time involved in full-scale...
273
Pharmacokinetic Models: Comparison and Selection Criterion
83
Physiological and compartmental models are valuable tools used in studying biological systems. These models rely on differential equations to maintain mass balance within the system, ensuring an accurate representation of the dynamic processes at play.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
83
Design Example: Creating a Hydraulic Model of a Dam Spillway
207
Scaled hydraulic models of dam spillways provide a practical way to replicate and study the intricate flow dynamics of these structures. Often built to a 1:15 ratio, these models allow for observing critical water behavior, such as velocity distribution, flow patterns, and energy dissipation.
207
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
79
Pharmacokinetic models are mathematical constructs that represent and predict the time course of drug concentrations in the body, providing meaningful pharmacokinetic parameters. These models are categorized into compartment, physiological, and distributed parameter models.
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
79
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
59
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
59


