探索经济增长对非洲二氧化碳排放的动态影响:来自PMG估计小组的证据
Delphin Kamanda Espoir1, Regret Sunge2, Frank Bannor3
1School of Economics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa. espoirkamandadelphin@gmail.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 17, 2023
概括
非洲的经济增长证实了环境库兹内茨曲线 (EKC) 假设,最初显示二氧化碳排放量增加,然后随着更高的发展而减少. 可再生能源和治理改善了环境质量.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 经济增长与环境污染之间的关系是一个全球性问题.
- 具有高经济表现的非洲国家经常面临环境挑战.
- 环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 假设表明,随着发展,环境也会得到改善.
研究的目的:
- 在非洲背景下重新审视EKC假设.
- 分析经济增长,城市化,可再生能源和治理对二氧化碳排放的影响.
- 调查长期和短期的动态和因果关系.
主要方法:
- 面板协同整合测试的测试.
- 聚合平均组自行回归分布式滞后 (PMG-ARDL) 模型
- 杜米特雷斯库-赫林因果关系试验
- 从47个非洲国家 (1996-2019) 的小组数据分析.
主要成果:
- EKC假设得到了验证:1%的人均GDP增长将使CO2增加0.61%,而其平方长期减少0.03%.
- 经济增长对排放没有显著的短期影响.
- 可再生能源的消费对二氧化碳排放产生负面影响,而良好的治理则从长远来看对它们产生积极影响.
- 二氧化碳排放和所有解释变量之间存在双向因果关系.
结论:
- 经济增长可以导致非洲的环境改善,支持EKC假设.
- 采用可再生能源和强有力的治理对于减轻二氧化碳排放至关重要.
- 政策干预应考虑经济发展与环境质量之间的复杂,动态的关系.
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