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太阳能能源转型的动力
Femke J M M Nijsse1, Jean-Francois Mercure2,3,4, Nadia Ameli5
1Global Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. f.j.m.m.nijsse@exeter.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|October 17, 2023
概括
全球太阳能有望在2050年之前主导电力市场,这是由过去的政策驱动的. 解决电网稳定性,金融和供应链对于这种清洁能源转型至关重要.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 经济预测 经济预测
背景情况:
- 全球脱碳努力需要在2050-2060年之前广泛采用零碳能源.
- 太阳能是地球上最丰富的资源,由于投资增加,经济可行性迅速提高.
研究的目的:
- 预测哪些零碳能源有可能实现全球主导地位.
- 确定太阳能成为全球领先的电力来源的潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用数据驱动的条件技术和经济预测模型.
- 分析了受历史政策决定影响的技术轨迹.
主要成果:
- 太阳能可能已经达到全球不可逆转的临界点,导致太阳能在没有进一步的气候政策的情况下占据主导地位.
- 确定了关键的不确定性,包括电网稳定性,发展中国家的金融,供应链能力和政治阻力.
结论:
- 预计由于技术进步,太阳能将逐渐主导全球电力市场.
- 解决电网稳定性,金融,供应链和就业影响的政策对于加速清洁能源转型至关重要.
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