一个几乎周期性的载体传播疾病模型的值动态
Tailei Zhang1, Xiao-Qiang Zhao2
1School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710064, China. tlzhang@chd.edu.cn.
Journal of mathematical biology
|October 17, 2023
概括
环境因素对载体传播疾病的传播有重大影响. 数学模型显示,使用平均环境值可以低估疾病传播,强调需要动态控制策略来对抗疟疾和登革热等疾病.
科学领域:
- 数学流行病学数学流行病学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 许多传染病依赖于载体进行传播,载体生命周期对环境条件敏感.
- 了解环境变异对疾病动态的影响对于有效控制至关重要.
- 以前的模型经常简化环境因素,可能导致不准确的预测.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一种用于载体传播疾病传播的数学模型,该模型包含几乎周期性的环境系数.
- 调查环境波动对疾病动态和基本生殖数量的影响.
- 将该模型应用于疟疾和登革热传播,并评估控制策略.
主要方法:
- 开发一种带有几乎周期系数的载体传播疾病模型.
- 导出基本的生殖数 ([公式:见文本]) 和建立基于这一门的全球动态.
- 疟疾和登革热的数值模拟,包括对现实数据进行参数调整 (中国广东省) 和灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 当几乎定期的环境系数被它们的平均值所取代时,基本的繁殖数量可能会被大大低估.
- 中国广东地区登革热的数值模拟预测,如果没有加强的控制措施,病例将稳步增加.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响疾病传播的关键参数:康复率,蚊子招募率和死亡率,蚊子和人类之间的传播率.
结论:
- 结合动态环境因素的数学模型对于准确预测载体传播疾病的传播至关重要.
- 有效控制登革热等疾病需要采取多方面的方法,包括载体控制,改善治疗和公共卫生干预措施.
- 环境修改和减少人与载体接触是预防疾病策略的关键组成部分.
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