开发生态毒理学整体预测模型
N L Pollesch1,2, K M Flynn1, S M Kadlec1
1USEPA Office of Research and Development, Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, 6201 Congdon Blvd, Duluth, MN, USA 55804.
规模结构化整体投影模型 (IPM) 将个体生存和繁殖与人口动态联系起来. 这种方法有助于对数据有限的水生环境中的化学物质暴露的生态风险评估.
科学领域:
- 水生生态毒理学 水生生态毒理学
- 生态风险评估 生态风险评估
- 人口动态建模的人口动态建模
背景情况:
- 个体大小对于生态系统的生存和繁殖至关重要,特别是水生生态系统.
- 尺寸会影响水生生态毒理学中化学物质暴露的影响.
- 生态风险评估人员需要方法来估计化学物质暴露对野生动物群体的影响,但数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 展示化学和非化学对生长,生存和繁殖的影响如何与人口层面的动态联系在一起.
- 开发一种适用于数据有限环境中的生态风险评估者的建模方法.
- 介绍整体投影模型 (IPM) 在生态毒理学中的首次应用.
主要方法:
- 利用尺寸结构化整体投影模型 (IPM) 将个体特征与人口动态联系起来.
- 开发了季节性繁殖,密度依赖的生长和大小依赖的冬季生存的建模技术.
- 纳入了IPM中化学物质暴露对急性生存和亚致死的生长效应的毒动力学-毒动力学模型.
- 肥头小鱼 (Pimephales promelas) 生命史的参数化每日时间步骤IPM.
主要成果:
- 通过使用IPM,成功地将个人特征的化学和非化学影响与人口水平的结果联系起来.
- 在数据有限的场景中证明了尺寸结构化IPM在生态风险评估中的实用性.
- 展示了IPM对季节性繁殖,密度依赖的生长和尺寸依赖的生存的应用.
结论:
- 规模结构化的IPM为生态毒理学提供了灵活而有前途的框架.
- 这种方法可以综合生态毒理学数据和理论,以评估化学和非化学压力因素对人口的影响.
- IPM为了解环境压力因素对人口的影响提供了有价值的工具.
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