走向石油泄漏的长期影响的综合建模
Helena M Solo-Gabriele1, Tom Fiddaman2, Cecilie Mauritzen3
1Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA.
Marine policy
|October 18, 2023
概括
开发石油泄漏综合评估模型至关重要. 本研究提出了一个框架,以了解长期的生态系统,社会经济和人类健康影响,并确定未来研究的关键知识差距.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态系统建模 生态系统建模
- 社会经济影响评估.
背景情况:
- 目前对石油泄漏的科学理解缺乏对长期影响的综合评估工具.
- 现有的模型不能充分解决生态系统,社会经济因素和人类健康之间的复杂相互作用.
- 利益相关者的问题和专家的意见强调了需要一个统一的框架.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个概念框架,用于石油泄漏影响的综合评估建模.
- 确定知识缺口,并优先考虑未来的研究,以进行全面的石油泄漏影响分析.
- 为了促进利益相关者的参与,并回答有关长期后果的关键问题.
主要方法:
- 采用系统动态方法,综合了来自四个关键领域的信息:海洋环境,生物生态系统,社会经济学和人类健康.
- 公众参与被用来收集利益相关者的问题,为框架的发展提供信息.
- 对现有模型的专家意见被同化,以建立对当前能力的全面理解.
主要成果:
- 一个因果循环图可视化了四个领域之间的相互连接,揭示了自然分离为两层:环境/生态系统和社会经济/人类健康.
- 海洋和生态系统模型可以为社会经济和人类健康影响评估提供信息.
- 人类领域通过政策和监管变化在十年时间范围内显著影响自然系统.
结论:
- 社会经济学和人类健康领域表现出最显著的数据缺口,需要大量的未来研究.
- 完全结合的定量整合性评估模型是战略决策和优化未来石油泄漏的恢复所必需的.
- 开发的框架为解决研究差距和增强对石油泄漏影响预测能力提供了基础.
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