气候变化,人口增长和电力部门脱碳对城市建筑能源使用的影响
Chenghao Wang1,2,3, Jiyun Song4,5,6, Dachuan Shi4
1Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. chenghao.wang@ou.edu.
Nature communications
|October 18, 2023
概括
未来城市建筑的能源使用将受到气候变化和人口增长的影响. 分析显示,峰值电力需求和冷却需求显著增加,强调需要城市特定策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学和城市规划
- 建筑能量的建模.
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 目前的区域能源分析缺乏有效的城市层面规划的细节性.
- 未来建筑的能源消耗受到气候,技术和社会经济因素的影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计美国277个城市地区的世纪中叶每小时建筑能耗.
- 分析气候变化,人口增长和电力部门变化对城市能源使用的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用自下而上的方法来建模能源消耗.
- 预测的气候变化场景应用于城市地区.
- 建筑能源使用强度 (EUI) 的变化被计算为空间的冷却和加热.
主要成果:
- 预计气候变化导致EUI发生异质变化,电力需求峰值频率增加 (10.1-37.7%).
- 每升温1°C,空间冷却EUI增加约14%,加热EUI减少约10%.
- 城市规模的能源使用变化范围从-9%到40%,由人口和电力部门的转变驱动,以南北梯度.
结论:
- 气候变化对城市能源使用的影响在各个城市之间有很大差异.
- 人口增长和电力部门脱碳是未来能源需求的主要驱动力.
- 必须考虑城市间的异质性,以实现可持续和有弹性的城市能源系统发展.
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