网络连接的季节性变化以及对单独的食肉动物病原体传播的后果
Marie L J Gilbertson1,2, S Niamh Hart3, Kimberly VanderWaal3
1Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, 55108, USA. mgilbertson5@wisc.edu.
Scientific reports
|October 18, 2023
概括
佛罗里达州的 (Puma concolor coryi) 在干旱季节显示出更高的空间连接性,增加了病原体传播的可能性. 这种季节性变化会影响危野生动物群体的疾病动态.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 季节性息地使用和行为影响宿主接触模式和病原体传播.
- 临灭绝的佛罗里达 (Puma concolor coryi) 面临着由病原体引起的死亡率和潜在的流行病的风险.
- 以前的研究表明,在干旱季节佛罗里达的移动增加,可能会影响人口连接和疾病传播.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定佛罗里达州的是否在干旱季节比雨季期间表现出更大的空间连接性.
- 测试观察到的季节性连接差异是否会影响预测的流行病动态.
- 评估季节性行为变化对脆弱物种疾病传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了11年的佛罗里达遥测数据.
- 建造的季节性家庭范围重叠网络以分析连接.
- 基于观察到的连接性,模拟了干季和雨季网络上的病原体传播.
主要成果:
- 佛罗里达州的在干旱季节表现出明显更高的空间连接性.
- 模拟表明,当干旱季开始时,病原体爆发的趋势会更大,更长时间.
- 季节性行为变化,即使在单独的物种中,也会大大影响流行病的动态.
结论:
- 佛罗里达州的息地使用和移动模式的季节性变化创造了增加空间连接的时期.
- 这些连接性变化可能导致病原体传播动态的改变,并可能导致更严重的疫情爆发.
- 了解季节性影响对于管理佛罗里达等危物种的疾病风险至关重要.
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