观察到北大西洋热带气旋峰值强化率的增加
1Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, 08028, USA. garnera@rowan.edu.
Scientific reports
|October 19, 2023
概括
由于气候变化,热带气旋强化率显著增加. 温暖的海洋在大西洋海岸线上造成了更快速和更强烈的热带气旋 (TC).
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TCs) 对大西洋海岸线构成重大威胁.
- 人为温室气体排放有助于全球变暖和海洋变暖.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1971年到2020年大西洋盆地热带气旋强化率的变化.
- 调查观察到的TC强化与行星/海洋变暖之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 在1971-1990年和2001-2020年期间,对大西洋TC观察到的最大风速变化的分析.
- 对强化趋势的统计学意义测试.
主要成果:
- 与历史时期 (1971-1990) 相比,现代时期 (2001-2020年) 的平均最大TC强化率增加了高达28.7%.
- 在现代时代,TC更有可能迅速加剧 (例如,24小时内20kts),而不是在历史时代.
- 在36小时内从1级风升级为主要风的TC数量在现代时代增加了一倍多.
结论:
- 观察到的TC强化率的增加与人为气候变化有关.
- 这些强化的TC对大西洋沿海地区构成越来越大的危险.
- 观察到的TC强化变化在统计学上是显著的,如果没有气候变化,不太可能发生.
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