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根据气候变化情景,预计未来由于中国的热应激而造成的劳动力损失
Liangliang Cheng1, Kuiying Gu2, Liang Zhao3
1School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Science bulletin
|October 20, 2023
概括
气候变化将在中国显著增加热量诱导的劳动力损失,特别是在高排放场景下. 将全球变暖限制在1.5°C提供了巨大的经济效益和劳动生产率效益.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将在全球范围内加剧职业热应激.
- 缺乏对热应激影响的次区域分析,特别是在中国等多样化的经济体.
- 现有的暴露-反应功能可能不准确地反映中国工人的脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测中国未来的热带造成的劳动力损失.
- 分析不同地区和排放途径的这些损失.
- 量化限制全球变暖带来的经济效益.
主要方法:
- 利用当地气候模拟和中国劳动人口数据.
- 为中国工人开发了一种量身定制的暴露-反应功能.
- 在代表性度途径 (RCP) 下,模拟的热感应工作时间损失 (WHL).
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪末,每年的WHL将大幅增加,其中最严重的增加是在RCP8.5.5下.
- 中国的南部,东部和中部地区将遭受最严重的损失.
- 实现1.5°C的全球变暖目标可以显著减少WHL和相关的GDP损失.
结论:
- 气候变化对中国的劳动生产率构成重大威胁,原因是热压力增加.
- 严格的气候缓解政策和适应措施对于最大限度地减少不利影响至关重要.
- 省级政策制定者必须实施定制的职业健康战略,以应对局部风险.
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