从历史的谷歌搜索趋势中预测与RSV相关的儿科住院时间
Parth Bhatt1, Narendrasinh Parmar2, Tarang Parekh3
1United Hospital Center, Bridgeport, West Virginia.
Hospital pediatrics
|October 20, 2023
概括
谷歌趋势搜索呼吸道同胞病毒 (RSV) 活动可以预测即将到来的RSV相关的儿科住院治疗. 该工具可以帮助预测疫情激增,并在季节性疫情期间管理医疗保健资源.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数字健康数字健康
背景情况:
- 呼吸道同胞性病毒 (RSV) 在儿童中引起显著的季节性呼吸道疾病,导致频繁的急诊和住院治疗.
- 预测RSV激增是具有挑战性的,但对于医疗保健系统在高峰季节管理能力至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估谷歌趋势搜索"RSV"数据在预测与该病毒相关的儿科住院治疗的有效性.
- 为儿童RSV爆发提供一种新的预测工具.
主要方法:
- 对2019年HCUP-Kids住院患者数据库进行了回顾性分析.
- 收集和分析了"RSV"和RSV相关的儿科住院 (通过ICD代码识别) 的每月谷歌趋势数据.
- 使用有限分布式滞后模型来评估搜索趋势与住院率之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 该研究分析了102,127例与RSV相关的儿科住院病例,其中90%为两岁或以下的儿童.
- 谷歌趋势"RSV"相对兴趣得分增加1个单位与两个月内RSV相关入院病例累计增加140.7个单位相关.
- 这些发现表明,在线搜索活动与实际入院病例之间存在显著的预测关系.
结论:
- 针对RSV的谷歌趋势数据表明,预测未来与RSV相关的儿科住院病例具有实用性.
- 这种数字监控方法为医疗保健规划和资源分配提供了潜在的领先时间优势.
- 建议在区域卫生系统进行进一步的验证,以确认这些预测能力.
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