东盟国家的金融发展,能源消费和经济增长:PVAR方法的证据
Hung Quang Bui1, Thao Tran2, Anh The Vo3
1The President Office, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, 59C Nguyen Dinh Chieu Street, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|October 20, 2023
概括
东盟国家的经济增长促进了金融发展,并减少了化石燃料的消耗. 金融发展还降低了化石燃料的使用,这表明该地区的经济增长,金融和能源之间存在复杂的关系.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 区域经济研究 区域经济研究
背景情况:
- 东南亚国家联盟 (东盟) 面临着平衡经济增长与环境质量的挑战.
- 金融发展经常被认为是实现经济和环境目标的关键机制.
- 现有研究尚未充分阐明金融发展,能源消耗和东盟经济增长之间的复杂联系.
研究的目的:
- 研究东盟国家内金融发展,能源消费和经济增长之间的相互关系.
- 分析这些关键的经济和环境变量之间的因果动态和响应机制.
- 为1981-2021年期间使用先进的计量经济学技术提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 为了进行强大的分析,采用了通用时刻板向量自回归 (GMM-panel VAR) 框架的通用方法.
- 使用第二代格兰杰因果关系测试来确定变量之间的因果关系方向.
- 进行了差异分解分析,以量化每个变量对其他变量的影响.
主要成果:
- 经济增长对金融发展产生了积极的影响,并减少了东盟的化石燃料能源消耗.
- 金融发展在减少化石燃料能源消耗方面发挥了重要作用.
- 经济增长与化石燃料能源消耗之间,能源消耗与金融发展之间存在双向因果关系.
- 发现了从经济增长到金融发展的单向格兰杰因果关系.
- 差异分解表明经济增长是化石燃料能源消耗和金融发展变化的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 经济增长是东盟金融发展和环境改善 (减少化石燃料使用) 的关键因素.
- 金融发展是通过制对化石燃料的依赖来实现环境可持续性的补充工具.
- 政策干预应侧重于利用经济增长来促进金融发展,减少对化石燃料的依赖,以实现东盟的可持续发展.
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