荒野地区受到全球农业再分配的威胁
Alexandra S Gardner1, Brittany T Trew1, Ilya M D Maclean1
1Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
Current biology : CB
|October 20, 2023
概括
农业扩张威胁着全球的荒野,预计有270万平方公里的荒野将适合农业. 这种扩张,特别是在北半球,对生物多样性和重要的生态系统服务构成重大风险.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 农业扩张是全球生物多样性丧失的主要原因.
- 人口不断增长需要到2050年将粮食生产增加一倍.
- 气候变化可能会改变农业区,可能会影响保护区.
研究的目的:
- 检查未来的农业适用性和荒野地区之间的潜在重叠.
- 为了对1,708种作物品种的全球当前和未来气候适应性进行建模.
- 为了识别农业扩张对荒野的新兴威胁.
主要方法:
- 利用高分辨率的气候数据进行全球建模.
- 预计适用于1708种作物品种的气候适应性.
- 分析了40年来荒野地区的土地适用性变化.
主要成果:
- 270万平方公里的荒野可能会在40年内适合农业使用 (占荒野总面积的7%).
- 新适合的土地集中在北部高度地区 (76.3%的新适合土地是荒野).
- 在全球范围内,目前72.0%的可耕地可能会经历作物多样性的净损失.
结论:
- 农业扩张对荒野地区构成了一个主要的新兴威胁.
- 高北度地区特别容易受到农业侵占的影响.
- 需要采取紧急保护措施,以防止荒野完整性的不可逆转损失.
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