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基于空间综合分类的瑞典极端高温和寒冷相关死亡率预测
Osvaldo Fonseca-Rodríguez1, Ryan E Adams2, Scott C Sheridan2
1Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden; Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden.
Environmental research
|October 20, 2023
概括
气候变化将增加瑞典南部与热相关的死亡人数,而北部地区可能会减少与寒冷相关的死亡人数. 人口老龄化意味着热量带来更大的死亡风险,需要适应策略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响评估
- 公共卫生流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化会增加热量事件,减少寒冷事件,对人类健康产生重大影响.
- 人口变化,特别是人口老龄化,将加剧极端天气对健康的影响.
- 空间综合分类 (SSC) 用于分类日常天气模式.
研究的目的:
- 估计与瑞典极端炎热和极冷天气类型相关的未来死亡风险.
- 根据不同气候变化情景 (RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5) 对南部 (斯德哥尔摩) 和北部 (Jämtland) 地区分析这些风险.
- 在老年人群中量化可归因的热冷相关死亡人数和分数.
主要方法:
- 时间序列Poisson回归与分布式滞后分析了1991-2014年极端天气和每日死亡 (人口65岁以上) 之间的关系.
- 累积效应在夏季6天和冬季28天的时间内进行了评估.
- 全球气候模型 (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) 根据两个代表性度路径 (RCP) 场景,预测了2031-2070年的天气模式.
主要成果:
- 在斯德哥尔摩,预计到2061-2070年,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,与热有关的年死亡人数将大幅增加.
- 对于斯德哥尔摩的RCP 8.5,预计与热有关的死亡人数将从2031-2040年到2061-2070年增加一倍以上.
- 预计Jämtland将在与寒冷相关的死亡中略有下降,而与热量相关的死亡率没有显著变化.
结论:
- 瑞典北部农村地区预计将出现与寒冷相关的死亡率下降.
- 像斯德哥尔摩这样的城市南部地区面临着与热量相关的死亡率大幅增加.
- 鉴于人口老龄化,预计与热相关的死亡率将超过与寒冷相关的死亡率,特别是根据RCP 8.5,强调需要采取适应措施.
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