复合干旱和热浪的变化以及与中国各地的SST模式的关联
Xiaolong Pan1, Weiguang Wang1, Quanxi Shao2
1The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
The Science of the total environment
|October 20, 2023
概括
复合干旱和热浪 (CDH) 在中国正在增加,具有明显的区域模式和严重程度差异. 印度洋双极极显著影响轻度和中度CDH事件,与ENSO不同.
科学领域:
- 气候学和极端天气事件
- 环境科学与气象学
背景情况:
- 复合干旱和热浪 (CDH) 构成重大风险,原因是同时发生的极端现象的放大影响.
- 了解CDH在中国的不同严重程度和海面温度 (SST) 关系至关重要,但有限.
研究的目的:
- 准确识别CDH事件并分析它们在中国的多方面的特征.
- 探索CDH特征的演变及其与SST变异的关联.
- 研究各种SST模式对不同严重程度的CDH事件的差异性影响.
主要方法:
- 利用标准化降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 和多余热系数 (EHF) 来识别1961-2017年的CDH事件.
- 分析了空间模式,趋势和CDH频率,持续时间和强度的突然转变.
- 与主要SST模式相关的CDH特性,包括ENSO和IOD.
主要成果:
- CDH事件表现出异质的空间分布,其数量,频率,持续时间和强度的趋势显著增加.
- 在1993年至1996年期间,中国各地发生了显著的CDH特征的突然转变.
- 轻度和中度的CDH在西北和中国北部更为普遍,而严重的CDH则集中在中东地区. 印度洋双极 (IOD) 显著加剧了温和中度CDH,特别是在西北和中国北部,比ENSO.
结论:
- 根据严重程度,CDH事件显示出不同的进化路径,具有不同的区域性发生.
- 海洋表面温度模式,特别是IOD,对不同严重程度的CDH事件产生各种影响.
- 这些发现突出了气候变化,SST模式和中国复合极端事件之间的复杂相互作用.
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