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巴基斯坦的黑碳排放清单和情景分析

Kaleem Anwar Mir¹, Pallav Purohit², Muhammad Ijaz¹

¹Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination (MoCC & EC), Government of Pakistan, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)

|October 20, 2023

概括

巴基斯坦的黑碳 (BC) 排放量在2021年为181千,主要来自住宅来源. 通过更清洁的燃料和排放控制,到2050年可以大幅减少排放量.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
大气化学大气化学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

黑碳 (BC) 排放有助于空气污染,气候变化和健康问题.
巴基斯坦缺乏全面的BC排放清单和场景分析.
被忽视的来源,如煤油照明和炉,对BC有着显著的贡献.

研究的目的:

为巴基斯坦在2021年创建一个详细的BC排放清单.
在参考和加速减排场景下,预测到2050年的BC排放量.
评估缓解策略对BC排放的影响.

主要方法:

利用GAINS建模框架进行排放清单和场景分析.
包括非传统的BC源,如炉和柴油发电机.
分析了部门和子部门的BC排放贡献.

主要成果:

巴基斯坦2021年全国BC排放量为181 kt,其中住宅燃烧是最大的来源 (108 kt).
运输,工业和废物行业也是重要的贡献者.
根据参考排放情景 (RES),预计到2050年排放量将达到201千,根据加速减排情景 (ARS) 将达到41千.

结论:

巴基斯坦到2050年可以实现大幅减少BC排放量.
加快减排方案 (ARS) 证明了更清洁的燃料,改进的炉子和排放控制技术的有效性.
针对垃圾焚烧和作物残留物焚烧的缓解措施对于减少BC至关重要.

关键词:

空气污染大气污染碳黑是一种碳黑.气候变化气候变化气候变化排放控制排放控制排放控制排放量清单排放量清单排放量清单公共卫生公共卫生情景分析就是一种情景分析.

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