基于热力学潜力的有限世界中的宏观经济动态
Éric Herbert1, Gaël Giraud2,3, Aurélie Louis-Napoléon4,3
1Université Paris Cité, CNRS, UMR 8236-LIED, 75013, Paris, France. eric.herbert@u-paris.fr.
Scientific reports
|October 21, 2023
概括
这项研究使用热力学来模拟地球自然和经济系统的共同进化. 它发现,社会平等和温和的通货膨胀是可持续性的关键,而不仅仅是GDP增长.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 热力学是一种热力学.
- 系统动力学系统动力学
背景情况:
- 经济系统是依赖能源和物质流动的消耗性结构.
- 人类活动耗尽自然生态系统,影响经济可持续性.
- 现有的模型往往忽略了资源枯竭的热力学约束.
研究的目的:
- 提出自然和社会经济系统共同演变的概念模型.
- 将热力学原理纳入经济宏观动力学.
- 分析资源枯竭,不平等和通货膨胀对可持续发展的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种库存-流量一致的非线性宏观动力学模型.
- 集成的热力学潜力来量化生态系统枯竭的影响.
- 包括自然和强制回收,以及废物产生的一种摩擦术语.
- 基于代谢强度和摩擦,计算人类产生的.
主要成果:
- 强度和摩擦对于可持续性至关重要,比实际GDP增长更重要.
- 资源稀缺,收入不平等和通货膨胀是相互关联的.
- 具有适度通货膨胀的平等社会比具有低通货膨胀的不平等社会具有更大的可持续性.
结论:
- 热力学建模为理解经济环境共同演变提供了一个强大的框架.
- 社会结构和资源管理显著影响长期可持续性.
- ECODYCO软件为实现这些动态提供了一个实用的工具.
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