大规模的时间空间建模与结核病暴露相关的风险因素在野生动物和牲畜界面的风险因素
Cesar Herraiz1, Joaquín Vicente1, Christian Gortázar1
1Health and Biotechnology Research Group (SaBio), Institute for Game and Wildlife Research (IREC), CSIC-JCCM-UCLM, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain.
Preventive veterinary medicine
|October 22, 2023
概括
野生动物,特别是野猪,在西班牙显著影响了牛结核病的动态. 了解这些因素对于在全国范围内实现正式无结核病的地位至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 野生动物健康 野生动物健康
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 动物结核病 (TB) 管理是欧盟的优先事项,但西班牙在实现官方无结核病 (OTF) 地位方面面临挑战.
- 野生动物在结核病传播中的作用往往被低估,原因是数据稀缺,监测方法有限.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响牛结核病的风险因素:西班牙 (2014-2019) 的流行,发病率,维持和持续性.
- 利用贝叶斯的方法来建模时空TB动态和控制数据限制.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯的时空模型分析牛中的结核病发病率.
- 变化分区,以评估每个风险因素的独立影响.
- 绘制单个因素影响的地图,以确定结核病的区域驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 牛的移动,特别是来自高发病率地区的牛的移动,是结核病动态的主要驱动因素.
- 野猪结核病的患病率与牛结核病的发病率,维持和持久性显著相关.
- 野生动物成为结核病发病率的最重要因素,这表明它们在病原体引入中发挥了作用.
结论:
- 野生类动物在西班牙牛结核病的时空变化中发挥着关键作用.
- 确定区域特异性结核病驱动因素对于有针对性的控制策略来实现OTF地位至关重要.
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