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在CMIP6历史模拟中对比内部和外部生成的大西洋多年周期变量以及AMOC在CMIP6历史模拟中的作用
Jon Robson1, Rowan Sutton1, Matthew B Menary2
1Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
概括
大西洋多十年变化 (AMV) 很可能是由大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 等海洋动态驱动的,而不仅仅是外部力量. 气候模型支持这一点,尽管不能完全忽视外部影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 大西洋多十年变化 (AMV) 传统上与大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 有关.
- 另一种理论认为,外界强迫是AMV的主要驱动因素.
- 最近的研究使用CMIP6模型模拟来评估这些假设.
研究的目的:
- 评估内部变化和外部强迫在驾驶AMV中的作用.
- 为了将模型模拟的AMV指纹与观察数据进行比较.
- 确定气候模型与观察到的AMV动态的一致性.
主要方法:
- 从合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的历史模拟分析.
- 评估不同的AMV指数,以评估对外部强迫的敏感性.
- 探索AMV的多变量表达,以区分内部和外部驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 外部强迫对AMV的影响对所选择的指数敏感.
- 模型中的内部变化与海洋循环和AMOC动态保持一致.
- 外部强迫的AMV主要是由表面流动驱动的,海洋的参与最小.
- 模型中的AMV的内部指纹类似于观测,而外部指纹则不同.
结论:
- 气候模型表明,海洋动态,特别是AMOC在观察到的AMV中发挥着重要作用.
- 虽然外部强迫的作用在观察中得到的支持较少,但不能完全排除它.
- 模型仍然在充分捕捉AMV动态方面存在缺陷.
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