延迟疫苗接种率对Covid-19的作用
Mohammed Salman1, Sanjay Kumar Mohanty1, Chittaranjan Nayak2
1Department of Mathematics, SAS, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, 632014, Tamil Nadu, India.
Heliyon
|October 23, 2023
概括
疫苗接种率较低会增加COVID-19感染. 数学模型表明,疫苗接种稳定性的时间延迟至关重要;延迟超过一定的点会破坏Covid-19爆发模型的稳定.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19 疫情凸显了疫苗在疾病控制中的关键作用.
- 了解疫苗接种率和潜在延迟的影响对于有效的流行病管理至关重要.
- 数学建模为分析疾病动态和干预策略提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析Covid-19疫情的数学模型,包括疫苗接种率和时间延迟.
- 研究拟议的Covid-19模型的全球动态和稳定性.
- 评估疫苗接种覆盖率和时间延迟对疾病传播和疫情控制的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个对Covid-19传播的隔间数学模型.
- 将疫苗接种作为一个关键参数,包括对时间延迟的分析.
- 使用稳定性分析和分叉理论来确定模型动态.
- 数字模拟以说明流行病学相关性并验证理论发现.
主要成果:
- 这项研究证明了所考虑的数学模型的全球稳定性.
- 发现较低的疫苗接种率与较高的感染人数相关.
- 时间延迟模型的稳定性取决于时间延迟参数;如果延迟低于关键的Hopf分叉值,则稳定性保持.
结论:
- 接种疫苗是缓解COVID-19传播的重要策略.
- 疫苗接种活动的时间延迟可能会对疾病动态和模型稳定性产生重大影响.
- 数学建模,包括疫苗接种和时间延迟,为流行病期间的公共卫生干预提供了宝贵的见解.
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