自杀预防的模拟模型:对最先进的现状的调查
Ryan Schuerkamp1, Luke Liang1, Ketra L Rice2
1Department of Computer Science & Software Engineering, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056, USA.
Computers (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 23, 2023
概括
这次对自杀预防模拟模型的审查发现了53项干预措施,但指出缺乏成本效益和人口因素. 尽管有局限性,但这些模型对于理解自杀风险和干预影响有价值.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算建模 计算建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 自杀是一个重要的全球公共卫生问题,占2019年所有死亡人数的1%以上.
- 建模与模拟 (M&S) 是解决自杀等复杂公共卫生挑战的宝贵工具.
- 现有的关于自杀风险因素的M&S研究缺乏综合审查,阻碍了知识共享,并可能导致重复努力.
研究的目的:
- 为预防自杀而开发的模拟模型进行首次范围审查.
- 为了确定支持的干预措施,评估模型的局限性,并评估对目前自杀预防的模拟模型的信心.
主要方法:
- 采用了一个范围审查方法,分析了十篇关于自杀预防模拟模型的文章.
- 基于受支持的干预措施评估模型,确定应用障碍,并遵守模拟最佳实践.
主要成果:
- 四个模型组共同支持53个自杀预防干预措施,分析突出了与全球建议一致的未来模型开发领域.
- 确定的主要局限性包括所有审查的模型中缺乏成本效益分析,以及对干预效应的人口变化普遍缺乏考虑.
- 模型展示了细微的功能,显示了作为理解自杀的复杂性和评估预防策略的强大工具的承诺,尽管目前的局限性.
结论:
- 该审查提供了现有的自杀预防模拟模型的全面概述,确定了优点和弱点.
- 未来的模型开发应该优先考虑成本效益和人口特异性,以提高模拟研究的实际适用性和影响.
- 当前的模拟模型虽然有局限性,但在促进自杀的理解和预防方面具有重要价值.
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