开发和验证一个预测模型,用于皮肤透膜利切除术后的尿液败血症:一个多中心的回顾性研究
Leibo Wang1,2, Daobing Li3, Wei He1,2
1Department of Surgery, Orthopedic Hospital of Guizhou, Guiyang, China.
Minerva urology and nephrology
|October 23, 2023
概括
一个新的诺莫格拉姆模型预测皮肤透神经切除术 (PCNL) 后的泌尿器官败血症. 关键的风险因素包括阳性尿液培养,更长的手术时间和残留石头,有助于泌尿科医生在手术前的规划.
科学领域:
- 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 泌尿器官败血症是皮肤透神经切除术 (PCNL) 后的一个重大并发症.
- 确定败血症的预测因素对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析与PCNL后泌尿器官败血症相关的因素.
- 开发和验证PCNL.NL后泌尿器官败血症的诺米克预测模型.
主要方法:
- 追溯性多中心研究,包括2066名PCNL患者.
- 后勤回归分析在训练队列中确定了风险因素 (N.=1139).
- 在内部 (N.=484) 和外部 (N.=443) 验证的Nomogram模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了五个独立的风险因素:阳性尿培养 (OR=5.29),阳性尿酸 (OR=5.97),操作时间≥60分钟 (OR=4.4),残留石头 (OR=5.18) 和石头大小≥30毫米 (OR=3.22).
- 诺米图表表现出强大的预测准确性,AUC在验证队列中从0.804到0.948不等.
- 通过校准曲线和决策曲线分析证实了良好的校准和临床效用.
结论:
- 一个名图模型有效地预测PCNL后的泌尿器官败血症风险.
- 该模型包括尿液培养/化物状态,操作持续时间和石头特征.
- 这种工具可以帮助泌尿科医生进行手术前风险评估和治疗策略制定.
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