过早预测:准确的预测者不被认为对早期预测更有能力
Robert Mislavsky1, Celia Gaertig2
1Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University.
Journal of experimental psychology. General
|October 23, 2023
概括
提前做出准确的预测并不能提高人们的认知能力. 观察者可能会将早期准确的预测归因于运气而不是技能,这表明预测者应该等待更多信息.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 许多人认为,提前提供准确的预测可以提高人们的认知能力.
- 这种信念是常见的,尽管缺乏支持它的经验证据.
研究的目的:
- 调查预测时间对预测者感知的影响.
- 为了确定早期准确的预测是否归因于技巧或运气.
主要方法:
- 该研究可能涉及向参与者展示预测者在不同时间间隔进行预测的场景.
- 感知能力和属性 (技能与运气) 可能被测量.
主要成果:
- 预报者在很长一段时间前做出准确的预测并没有被认为更有能力,有时也被认为不那么有能力.
- 观察人士认为,早期准确的预测更多地归功于运气,而不是技能,因为他们认识到未来事件的可知性降低了.
结论:
- 提前做出预测可能会降低预测者的可信度.
- 预测者可能会从等待更多信息之前做出预测来保持感知能力的预测中获益.
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