家庭对环境冲击的有限合理适应的不确定性
Alessandro Taberna1, Tatiana Filatova1, Antonia Hadjimichael2,3
1Department of Multi Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands.
概括
现实的人类行为,而不是理性的代理人,是气候适应模型的关键. 有限的理性导致"适应缺陷",低估了洪水损害和适应传播.
科学领域:
- 可持续性科学 可持续性科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 可持续性科学模型经常使用'理性代理人'假设,这并不反映现实世界的人类行为.
- 这是气候变化适应的一个重要问题,这需要理解从个人到政府的行动.
- 经验数据显示,社会和行为因素影响适应决策,但它们对模型的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 探索家庭对洪水的现实适应行为如何影响自然社会系统模型.
- 用实证数据来比较使用"理性代理"与"有限的理性"代理的结果.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种创新的基于演化经济代理商的模型 (ABM).
- 结合了来自美国迈阿密的一项家庭调查的行为数据,重点关注洪水适应.
- 在ABM框架内模拟不同的行为假设.
主要成果:
- 与有限的理性代理模型相比,代表性的理性代理模型高估了适应传播,低估了洪水损害.
- "适应赤字"主要来自于"软"的约束,如意识和社会影响,而不仅仅是财务限制.
- 洪水后,最初的不平等程度会加剧,不均的适应效益会扩大损害差距,即使广泛适应.
结论:
- 在风险评估中,行为假设对物理因素的感知不确定性产生了重大影响.
- 使用经验知情,有界的理性代理的基于代理的建模对于评估适应的累积和分布效应至关重要.
- 研究结果支持制定量身定制的气候适应政策,并促进公平的可持续性转型.
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