一种双核系统动态方法,用于碳排放溢出效应分析和跨区域政策模拟
Yi Ding1, Jian Yin1, Hongtao Jiang2
1Center for China Western Modernization, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China; College of Big Data Application and Economic, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China; Key Laboratory of Green Fintech, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 23, 2023
概括
跨区域碳治理是管理排放溢出效应的关键. 一个城市的政策,如成都,可以影响邻居,需要定制策略来有效减少碳排放.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 全球碳排放量不断上升,需要有效的政策干预.
- 二氧化碳排放呈现出受到邻近政策影响的空间溢出效应.
- 跨区域碳治理为合作减排提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 分析成都-重庆地区碳排放的影响因素和空间溢出效应.
- 使用系统动态模拟减排潜力和政策影响.
- 调查量身定制的碳减排战略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 空间德宾模型 (SDM) 用于分析影响因素和空间溢出效应.
- 系统动态建模以构建一个双核碳排放系统.
- 模拟政策方案以评估减排潜力和溢出效应.
主要成果:
- 人口和企业的流动性对碳排放预测有重大影响.
- 碳减排政策可能导致"碳转移"和"自由骑行"现象.
- 成都的经济变化可以将排放转移到重庆;重庆的政策有利于成都.
- 工业政策显示时间效力问题,短期和长期结果相反.
结论:
- 由于城市独特的环境,定制的碳减排政策是必不可少的.
- 成都和重庆需要对比的人口政策来减少排放.
- 有效的跨区域碳治理需要解决政策溢出效应和定制战略.
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