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基于受约束的CMIP6预测的1901-2099年高分辨率 (1公里) 科本-盖格地图
Hylke E Beck1, Tim R McVicar2,3, Noemi Vergopolan4,5
1King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. hylke.beck@gmail.com.
Scientific data
|October 23, 2023
概括
科本-盖格尔气候地图的第二版显示了陆地表面的重大变化. 历史数据显示5%的转移,未来预测显示在2099年高排放场景下,到2099年高排放场景下,这一比例可能高达13%.
科学领域:
- 气候学和气候科学 气候学和气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 地理信息科学 地理信息科学
背景情况:
- 科本-盖格尔气候分类系统是广泛用于分类全球气候区的工具.
- 了解历史和预测的气候变化对于环境和社会规划至关重要.
- 以前的气候分类地图在分辨率和未来预测方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 介绍Köppen-Geiger气候分类地图的1公里分辨率版本2.
- 根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 提供更新的历史气候地图和未来预测.
- 为公众提供高分辨率的气候数据和模型输出.
主要方法:
- 在历史地图 (1901-2020) 中利用基于观测的气候学.
- 在未来的地图 (2041-2099) 中,采用合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 的缩小和偏差校正的气候预测.
- 评估了67个CMIP6模型,根据其可信的二氧化碳引起的变暖速度选择了42个.
主要成果:
- 在1901-1930年和1991-2020年期间,全球大约5%的陆地表面 (不包括南极洲) 转移到不同的科本-盖格尔级.
- 未来的预测表明,到2071-2099年,陆地表面将发生显著的转变:5% (SSP1-2.6),8% (SSP2-4.5) 和13% (SSP5-8.5).
- 高分辨率地图,信心估计和基础数据在线可用.
结论:
- 气候变化显然正在改变全球气候分类,从历史上观察到的和未来预测到的重大变化.
- 未来气候区转型的程度高度依赖于社会经济发展和排放场景.
- 更新的科本-盖格尔地图和相关数据为气候变化研究和适应规划提供了宝贵的资源.
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