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全球海上风能和波浪能源生产的CMIP6预测 (2015年至100年)
Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegui1,2, Jon Sáenz3,4, Alain Ulazia5
1Energy Engineering Department, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plaza Ingeniero Torres Quevedo, 1, 48013, Bilbao, Spain. gabriel.ibarra@ehu.eus.
Scientific reports
|October 23, 2023
概括
全球海上风能和波浪能源预测显示,到2100年,全球海上风能和波浪能源预测将出现适度变化. 虽然一般稳定,但一些沿海风电场可能会出现轻微的产量下降,需要仔细规划可再生能源投资.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 评估可再生能源的使用情况.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 未来的能源需求需要可靠的可再生能源.
- 海上风能和海浪能源是全球能源转型的关键组成部分.
- 了解这些资源的长期气候影响对于投资至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的气候场景下,预测海上风能和海浪能源发电的全球趋势.
- 评估气候变化对沿海地区可再生能源生产的潜在影响.
- 为正在进行的可行性研究和海上能源投资提供可靠的背景.
主要方法:
- 利用了每三小时的合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 预测.
- 使用CSIRO WaveWatchIII波浪模型进行能源计算.
- 分析了两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP):SSP585和SSP126,直到2100.
主要成果:
- 在 10-15% 的沿海地区,从风和海浪的理论发电中预计会出现中等,显著的变化.
- 海上风能和海浪能源的整体前景普遍稳定.
- 某些拥有现有或计划的风电场的沿海地区可能会在2100年之前略有减少产量.
结论:
- 该研究为大多数海上风能和海浪能源可行性研究和投资提供了稳定的前景.
- 建议对波浪能量采取谨慎的方法,因为它处于早期发展阶段.
- 根据气候变化情景,研究结果为技术开发和离岸设施投资提供了可靠的背景.
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