使用机器学习模型预测与气候变化相关的Oncomelania hupensis分布
Ning Xu1,2,3, Yun Zhang4,5, Chunhong Du4,5
1Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Parasites & vectors
|October 23, 2023
概括
准确的牛分布预测对于杆菌病的控制至关重要. 这项研究发现,气候变化将在云南省向北和向西扩大梅兰的息地.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学是一种计算生物学.
背景情况:
- 梅兰菌是 Schistosoma japonicum 的唯一中间宿主.
- 牛的出现和复发挑战了中国的istosomiasis消除.
- 准确的牛分布预测对于疾病控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测Oncomelania hupensis息地的当前和未来分布.
- 评估气候,地理和社会经济变量对牛分布的影响.
- 为了告知杆菌病的预防和控制策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了2016年云南省O. hupensis分布数据.
- 采用了八种机器学习算法 (RF,SVM,XGB等). 为了模拟牛的分布.
- 根据各种气候变化情景 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585) 对2030年代,2050年代和2070年代的未来牛分布的预测.
主要成果:
- 随机森林 (RF) 模型表现出卓越的性能 (AUC:0.991).
- 关键的预测变量包括降雨季节性,年平均降雨量,日间温度范围和人口密度.
- 目前合适的牛息地集中在云南西北部,由于气候变化,预计将向北和向西扩张.
结论:
- 模型预测与目前的O. hupensis分布记录保持一致.
- 预计气候变化将推动牛息地扩展到云南省的新地区.
- 这些发现为制定有针对性的牛控制措施提供了关键数据.
相关概念视频
01:16What is Climate?
18.6K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.6K
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
135
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
135
01:50Global Climate Change
24.4K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.4K
01:03Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
02:31Habitat Fragmentation
17.5K
Habitat fragmentation describes the division of a more extensive, continuous habitat into smaller, discontinuous areas. Human activities such as land conversion, as well as slower geological processes leading to changes in the physical environment, are the two leading causes of habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation process typically follows the same steps: perforation, dissection, fragmentation, shrinkage, and attrition.
17.5K
01:07What is Weather?
18.3K
Overview
18.3K