数据驱动的深度学习神经网络用于预测感染COVID-19Omicron变异的个体数量
Ebenezer O Oluwasakin1, Abdul Q M Khaliq1
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, USA.
Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 24, 2023
概括
预测COVID-19 Omicron变种的传播是至关重要的. 一个新的时间序列神经网络模型准确地预测了感染,在具有不同缓解措施的国家中表现优于传统模型.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 实时流行病预测对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 像SIR这样的数学模型是疾病预测的重要工具.
- 数据驱动的深度学习为流行病模型中的参数识别提供了先进的方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估COVID-19 Omicron变种感染的预测模型.
- 为了比较传统数学模型的性能与新的时间序列神经网络方法.
- 评估不同国家与不同公共卫生缓解策略的模型准确性.
主要方法:
- 将SIR模型简化为后勤微分方程,创建常数,理数和双理数模型.
- 开发了一个时间序列模型,利用神经网络进行感染预测.
- 引入了基于物流的神经网络算法,以从数据中确定分析解决方案.
- 在葡萄牙,意大利和中国的Omicron变种数据上使用错误指标验证了模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 恒定模型对每日和累积的Omicron感染的预测准确性不佳.
- 理性和双理性模型准确地预测了严格缓解的国家的累积感染,但在日常感染和部分缓解方面扎.
- 新的时间序列模型在预测每日和累积感染方面表现出了多功能性和准确性,无论缓解的严格程度如何.
结论:
- 传统的数学模型在预测COVID-19 Omicron变种传播方面存在局限性,尤其是在采取部分缓解措施的情况下.
- 一个时间序列神经网络模型为实时流行病预测提供了强大而通用的解决方案.
- 通过先进的数据驱动方法,可以准确预测传染病动态,帮助公共卫生准备.
关键词:
在COVID-19 Omicron变种中.数据驱动的数据驱动.深度学习是一种深度学习.逻辑微分方程 逻辑微分方程逻辑信息的神经网络 逻辑信息的神经网络流行病的数学建模 流行病的数学建模时间依赖的函数.更多相关视频
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