水文气象因素对西北部喜马拉雅山脉排放模拟的影响:使用SWAT模型进行SUFI-2算法驱动的调查
Taroob Bashir Naqash1, Manzoor Ahmad Ahanger2, Rajib Maity3
1Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, 190006, India. taroobnaqash@nitsri.ac.in.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|October 24, 2023
概括
这项研究使用了土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型来模拟喜马拉雅山脉的溪流流动,发现温度和降水的显著积极趋势. 该SWAT模型在分析气候对水资源的影响方面被证明是有效的.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 气候变化影响评估
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 可持续的水资源管理至关重要,特别是在生态敏感的地区,如西北喜马拉雅山脉.
- 计算式水文模型是评估水资源和制定管理策略的重要工具.
- 土壤和水资源评估工具 (SWAT) 被广泛用于模拟水资源动态.
研究的目的:
- 用SWAT模型和SWAT-CUP来模拟上部Jhelum盆地的流动.
- 对水文参数进行敏感性和不确定性分析.
- 调查温度和降水的趋势及其对河流流动的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型与SWAT-CUP相结合,用于流动模拟.
- 雇员序列不确定性调整2 (SUFI-2) 用于全球敏感性和不确定性分析.
- 应用自相关性和修改的曼-肯德尔 (MMK) 试验来分析温度和降水趋势.
主要成果:
- 确定了11个敏感参数,土壤保护服务 (SCS) 曲线数和融雪基温是最有影响的.
- 检测到年度温度和降水的统计学上显著的积极趋势.
- 在校准 (R2 > 0.82) 和验证 (R2 > 0.81) 期间在多个测量站实现了良好的模型性能.
结论:
- SWAT水文模型适用于模拟高山区的河流流动.
- 该模型可以有效地分析土地使用-土地覆盖变化和气候变异对河流流动的影响.
- 调查结果支持在该地区使用SWAT进行知情的水资源管理.
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