中国的土地融资,基础设施投资和房价
Mengkai Chen1,2, Ting Chen1
1School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan, China.
PloS one
|October 24, 2023
概括
中国的房价是由土地销售收入和基础设施投资之间的反循环驱动的. 较不发达地区对土地融资的依赖性更高,以促进住房价格的增长.
科学领域:
- 城市经济学城市经济学
- 公共财政是公共财政.
- 房地产市场分析房地产市场分析
背景情况:
- 近几十年来,中国的房价迅速上.
- 土地融资是房价增长的重要,但仍有争议的驱动因素.
- 政府财政政策与城市发展之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国房价,土地转让收入和基础设施投资之间的因果关系.
- 从政府收入和支出的角度分析这些动态.
- 确定土地融资和基础设施投资对房价的影响的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 经验分析使用了来自中国35个大中型城市 (2000-2017年) 的面板数据.
- 应用分组回归分析来研究区域差异.
- 使用向量错误校正模型 (VECM) 与控制变量进行稳定性测试.
主要成果:
- 在土地转让收入,基础设施投资和住房价格之间存在显著的积极反循环.
- 与中西部地区相比,中国东部的基础设施投资对房价的影响更为明显.
- 土地销售收入在中西部地区对房价的影响更大,这表明土地融资依赖程度更高.
结论:
- 土地转让收入和基础设施投资对中国城市的住房价格产生了积极的影响.
- 经济发展的区域差异与住房价格确定机制的不同相关.
- 调查结果为政策制定者提供了洞察力,旨在实现中国稳定的住房市场发展.
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