基于贝叶斯空间时间模型的肠道传染病关联因子研究
Yancen Zhan1, Hua Gu2, Xiuyang Li3
1Department of Big Data in Health Sciences, and Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, Zhejiang, China.
BMC infectious diseases
|October 24, 2023
概括
中国的肠道传染病 (IID) 总体下降,但区域差异仍然存在. 社会经济和气象因素显著影响IID风险,指导公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 肠道传染病 (IID) 在中国构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 疾病的发病率和分布表现出相当大的区域差异,受各种因素的影响.
研究的目的:
- 确定中国大陆IID的时空趋势.
- 调查社会经济和气象因素与IID发生之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 从中国疾病预防控制中心获得的2006-2017年IID数据的分析.
- 应用时空映射,平均中心和标准偏差圆分析.
- 利用贝叶斯的时空零膨胀波桑和负二项式模型来评估因子关联.
主要成果:
- 大多数IID显示发病率降低,区域差异很大.
- 获得无害的卫生所 (ARHST) 与霍乱,细菌性痢疾和其他IIDs有正相关,但与伤寒和偏伤寒发烧有负相关.
- 城市化与肝炎E相关;GDP与偏甲状腺热,细菌性痢疾和肝炎A负相关.
- 湿度与大多数IIDs有正相关性 (除了有氧痢疾);风速显示负相关性.
- 高降水和高温增加了伤寒和型发烧的风险,高温增加了手足口腔疾病的风险.
结论:
- 本研究提供了对IIDs社会经济和气象影响的系统和定量分析.
- 结果为未来的研究提供了因果洞察力,并为政府的公共卫生规划提供了信息.
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