预计气候变化将影响全球范围内的结构性山坡连接
Alexander T Michalek1, Gabriele Villarini2,3, Admin Husic4
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nature communications
|October 25, 2023
概括
景观的结构连接,对于水和沉积物流动至关重要,主要是由构造学驱动的. 到2100年,气候变化可能会将这种全球连通性改变4%,影响主要河流流域.
科学领域:
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
- 地质形态学 地质形态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 结构连接控制着水,溶液和沉积物在整个景观的运动.
- 了解景观连接的驱动因素至关重要,特别是在气候变化方面.
- 在山坡水平上缺乏结构连接的全球估计.
研究的目的:
- 提供山坡层面结构连接的全球估计.
- 开发一个包含构造学和气候过程的景观连接模型.
- 在气候变化场景下预测未来的景观连接变化.
主要方法:
- 在山坡层面的结构连接的总体估计.
- 开发一个整合构造学和气候驱动因素的模型.
- 使用温室气体排放场景对2070-2100年进行连接变化的预测.
主要成果:
- 构造学是对景观连接的主要控制因素;气候是一个次要因素.
- 在高排放场景下,预计到本世纪末 (2070-2100年) 全球连接将变化多达4%.
- 预计区域差异很大,河流域的连通性增加,亚马逊和巴塔哥尼亚的连通性减少.
结论:
- 气候变化即将改变全球景观连接,并对区域产生重大影响.
- 气候变暖可能会增加水源的侵蚀,而降雨量减少可能会阻碍下游沉积物运输.
- 景观连接的变化对人类人口和环境健康有深远的影响,特别是在主要河流流域.
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