机器学习模型的时间概括性,用于使用电子健康记录数据预测术后妄想:模型开发和验证研究
Koutarou Matsumoto1, Yasunobu Nohara2, Mikako Sakaguchi3
1Biostatistics Center, Kurume University, Kurume, Japan.
JMIR perioperative medicine
|October 26, 2023
概括
像XGBoost和LASSO这样的机器学习模型在预测术后妄想时没有显著优于传统的后勤回归. 具有关键预测因子的简单物流模型为临床使用提供了可比性能.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 临床预测模型临床预测模型
- 外科手术的结果
背景情况:
- 机器学习 (ML) 显示了预测术后妄想的前景.
- 现实世界的优势和与传统模型的比较不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 验证ML模型 (XGBoost,LASSO) 的时间概括性与预测术后妄想的后勤回归.
- 在实际的手术环境中比较预测性表现.
主要方法:
- 利用了11,863名手术患者的电子健康记录 (2017年12月至2022年2月).
- 开发了XGBoost (决策树组合) 和LASSO (散射线性回归) 模型.
- 使用AUROC,MCC,校准斜率/拦截和Brier分数的模型进行比较,队列在COVID-19大流行前和期间分裂.
主要成果:
- XGBoost 和 LASSO 模型显示了类似的预测歧视 (AUROC 0.86-0.90).
- 一个逻辑回归模型,有8个预测因素 (年龄,ICU,神经外科手术等). 证明了良好的表现 (AUROC 0.84-0.88).
- 在ML和物流模型之间没有发现显著的性能差异.
结论:
- 在预测术后痴呆症方面,XGBoost和LASSO模型的表现并没有显著超过彼此或逻辑回归.
- 有关关键预测因素的节物流模型实现了与复杂的ML模型相比较的性能.
相关概念视频
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