使用时间对事件机器学习预测结直肠癌存活率:回顾性队列研究
Xulin Yang1, Hang Qiu1,2, Liya Wang2
1School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China.
Journal of medical Internet research
|October 26, 2023
概括
机器学习 (ML) 模型可以使用时间到事件数据预测结直肠癌 (CRC) 存活率. 透明的ML模型,如RSF和DeepHit,为个性化患者治疗和改善结果提供了有希望的替代方案.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 机器学习 (ML) 对结直肠癌 (CRC) 生存预测有希望.
- 现有的ML模型往往忽视了生存数据的时间到事件性质.
研究的目的:
- 在CRC中评估ML方法的时间到事件生存数据.
- 开发透明的ML模型来预测CRC特定的存活率.
主要方法:
- 对2157名CRC患者进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 评估了6个时间到事件的ML模型 (RSF,GBM,DeepSurv,DeepHit,Cox-Time,N-MTLR).
- 使用时间依赖的一致性指数,布里尔分数,校准和决策曲线进行评估; SHAP用于特征重要性.
主要成果:
- DeepHit显示出最好的歧视 (C指数为0.789),RSF的最佳校准 (Brier分数为0.096).
- ML模型表现出与Cox PH模型相比较的性能.
- RSF,GBM,Cox-Time和N-MTLR提供了非参数替代方案.
- 关键预测因素:R0切除,TNM分期,淋巴结状况.
结论:
- 时间到事件的ML模型具有预测CRC存活的潜力.
- 透明的ML模型可以增强临床决策和个性化治疗.
- 可解释的AI模型可以改善CRC护理中的患者结果.
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