基于CEEMDAN-TCN-ESN模型的短期功率负载预测
Jiacheng Huang1, Xiaowen Zhang1, Xuchu Jiang1,2
1Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, China.
PloS one
|October 26, 2023
概括
准确的功率负载预测对于高效的能源管理至关重要. 一个新的混合CEEMDAN-TCN-ESN模型显著提高了短期负载预测的准确性,超过了现有的方法.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 高效的电力系统运行依赖于准确的负载预测,以平衡供需.
- 不准确的预测导致能源浪费和经济损失.
- 现有的模型在与功率负载数据的复杂,动态特征作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的混合模型,以提高短期功率负载预测.
- 提高电力负载预测的准确性和效率.
- 为应对复杂负载数据特征带来的挑战.
主要方法:
- 提出了一种混合模型,将完整合体实证模式分解与适应噪声 (CEEMDAN),时间卷积网络 (TCN) 和回声状态网络 (ESN) 结合起来.
- 使用CEEMDAN将负载数据分解为代表不同频率的内在模式函数 (IMF).
- 重建了高频和低频组件,并应用了TCN和ESN进行预测.
主要成果:
- CEEMDAN-TCN-ESN模型在巴拿马的国家电力负载数据上取得了高准确性.
- 实现了 15.081 的根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和 10.944 的平均绝对误差 (MAE),其 R 平方 (R2) 为 0.994.
- 与CEEMDAN-TCN模型相比,RMSE减少了9.52%,MAE减少了17.39%.
结论:
- 混合CEEMDAN-TCN-ESN模型有效地捕捉了短期功率负载数据中的复杂特征.
- 该模型成功地将基于相似特征的子系列合并在一起,从高频和低频组件中学习.
- 这种方法显示了在短期功率负载预测中实际应用的巨大潜力.
相关概念视频
01:28Load-frequency control
169
Load-frequency control (LFC) is vital for maintaining power system stability, ensuring that frequency and power flows remain within acceptable limits during load changes. Turbine-governor control eliminates rotor accelerations and decelerations following load changes. However, a steady-state frequency error persists when the change in the turbine-governor reference setting is zero. In an interconnected power system, each area agrees to export or import a scheduled amount of power through...
169
01:23Maximum Power Flow and Line Loadability
120
The maximum power flow for lossy transmission lines is derived using ABCD parameters in phasor form. These parameters create a matrix relationship between the sending-end and receiving-end voltages and currents, allowing the determination of the receiving-end current. This relationship facilitates calculating the complex power delivered to the receiving end, from which real and reactive power components are derived.
120
01:21Power System Three-Phase Short Circuits
93
Determining the subtransient fault current in a power system involves representing transformers by their leakage reactances, transmission lines by their equivalent series reactances, and synchronous machines as constant voltage sources behind their subtransient reactances. In this analysis, certain elements are excluded, such as winding resistances, series resistances, shunt admittances, delta-Y phase shifts, armature resistance, saturation, saliency, non-rotating impedance loads, and small...
93
01:25Multimachine Stability
165
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
165
01:30Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
247
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
247
01:29Econometric Views (EViews)
146
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
146