干燥的生长季节预测了2012年至2018年的中美洲移民到美国
Andrew Linke1, Stephanie Leutert2,3, Joshua Busby2,3
1Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA. andrew.linke@geog.utah.edu.
Scientific reports
|October 26, 2023
概括
中美洲更干燥的生长季节显著增加了对美国的移民. 气候变化对农业的影响是这种迁移的关键驱动力,在干旱期间观察到70.7%的增长.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 移民研究是关于移民的研究.
背景情况:
- 农业是气候变化影响人类人口的主要途径.
- 了解气候变化对移民的影响对于政策和人道主义努力至关重要.
- 以前的研究已经将环境因素与移民联系起来,但中美洲生长季节天气的具体影响需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定比平均干燥的生长季节天气是否预测了从萨尔瓦多,危地马拉和洪都拉斯到美国的移民.
- 量化影响农业的气候变化与移民流动之间的关系.
- 在分析中控制其他重要因素,如犯罪暴力和贫困.
主要方法:
- 利用了通过"信息自由法" (FOIA) 要求美国海关和边境保护局 (CBP) 获得的移民逮捕数据.
- 分析了边境巡逻队接受采访的数据,以确定移民家庭的原始住所位置.
- 与当地生长季节的天气模式和社会情况相关联的地理信息,比较最近的条件与自1901年以来的历史平均值.
主要成果:
- 观察到美国移民的统计学上显著增加.
- 具体来说,当中美洲的当地生长季节与历史规范相比经历了比平均气候干燥的天气时,移民量增加了70.7%.
- 这一发现甚至在控制犯罪暴力和贫困等因素时也是如此.
结论:
- 更干燥的生长季节天气是从萨尔瓦多,危地马拉和洪都拉斯移民到美国的重要预测因素.
- 气候变化通过对农业的影响,成为这些中美洲国家移民的重要驱动力.
- 解决农业气候变化适应问题的政策干预措施可能是减轻未来移民流动的关键.
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